Well after a cool three weeks in the past month we are transitioning quite abruptly to a pattern more typical for this time of the year with temps near to above normal. This weekend has been stellar so far and the rest of this week looks just as nice. We will see temps cool to normal for tomorrow before warming back up on Tuesday and Wednesday with temps back into the mid and upper 80's for inland areas. Coastal areas should stay near 70F for both NorCal and SoCal tomorrow before warming later in the week when a stronger ridge asserts itself over the area. This ridge albeit strong is shown at different strengths amongst the two models with the ECMWF showing heights very close to 6000M but the GFS has the high near 5950M. These discrepencies may seem small but actually translate to large differences in temps at the surface. The upper air temps at the 850MB level are progged by the GFS to be near 20-21C in NorCal for next weekend on the 12Z GFS of this morning while the ECMWF has temps higher than that. Both models show hot weather as the GFS would bring temps in the mid and upper 90's to inland NorCal and low 100's in SoCal but the ECMWF shows the possibility of 100-108F temps inland in both NorCal and SoCal. Either way you look at it, hot weather indeed but the differences between the models will determine whether we have a record breaking heatwave or a warm spell typical of this time of the year. What do you think, which solution will be correct?
Sunday, May 30, 2010
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